Bitcoin's Record Week: The Quiet Accumulation

In its push to a new all-time high price near $90,000 last Monday, Bitcoin broke the record for the biggest single-day gains in U.S. dollars. The push didn't stop there — just two days later BTC hit $93,483.

While the headlines focus on price, something far more significant is happening beneath the surface. Retail investors are still largely on the sidelines, yet Bitcoin is breaking records.

The Google search trends for “Bitcoin” are nowhere near previous highs.

The Perfect Storm

Three things are happening simultaneously that make this moment different:

1. Supply Just Got Cut in Half

   • April’s “halving” reduced new Bitcoin production to just 3.125 BTC every 10 minutes

   • That’s like a company cutting its share issuance by 50% overnight

   • This happened right as demand is going up…
     

2. Wall Street Has Entered the Chat

   • BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is now bigger than their Gold ETF (yes, really)

   • Over $33.2B flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in just 10 months

   • MicroStrategy alone holds 279,420 BTC ($12B+ worth)
     

3. The Government Game Begins
   Currently reported government holdings*:
   

   • 🇺🇸 USA: 208,109 BTC ($15.9B)

   • 🇨🇳 China: 190,000 BTC ($14.5B)

   • 🇬🇧 UK: 61,000 BTC ($4.67B)
     

   *Important: These definitely include seized assets and reported estimates.

Why This Matters Now

Remember when Tesla bought Bitcoin and everyone lost their minds? That’s starting to look like a warm-up act. Here’s what’s on the horizon:

Bitcoin’s next market cap milestones:

• $90,000: Passed Silver

• $91,150: Passes Saudi Aramco

• $107,280: Passes Google

• $109,650: Passes Amazon

Think about that for a second. We’re talking about Bitcoin potentially becoming worth more than Google.

Not in some distant future - these are the next few price levels ahead.

The Super Bowl Ticket Effect

Here’s the simplest way to explain what’s happening:

There are only 100 Super Bowl tickets left, and suddenly several billionaires announce they plan to buy as many as they can. What happens?

• Everyone rushes to buy first

• Prices surge

• Last buyers pay premium prices

• Some can’t buy at any price

Now replace “Super Bowl tickets” with Bitcoin and “billionaires” with countries.

There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. Ever. And for the first time, countries are starting to think about owning it.

What Could Go Wrong?

Key Risks to Monitor

• Almost all technical momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions near-term

• Remaining 142,000 BTC from Mt. Gox’s 2014 bankruptcy to be distributed (a supply of $12.8B)

• Regulatory frameworks continue to evolve globally

• Market depth and liquidity need monitoring at these levels

Four Unique Market Catalysts

1. Supply-Side Economics

   • April 2024 halving cut new supply to 3.125 BTC per block

   • First halving with mature institutional infrastructure

2. Institutional Access

   • ETF approval opened regulated investment channels

   • Professional capital now has easy market entry

3. Sovereign Interest

   • Countries discussing Bitcoin as strategic reserve asset

   • First-mover advantage driving consideration

4. Market Participation

   • Institutions leading while retail remains sidelined

   • Search trends suggest early in adoption cycle

We’re watching something fascinating: what happens when large buying power meets limited supply?

We are currently finding out.

Stay curious 🙂 

- John

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Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.