December 2nd Market Overview

Happy Monday.

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Holiday and got to spend time with people you enjoy being around. I did a write up on market crashes yesterday - check your email if you missed it.

Black Friday's strong retail figures and expected Cyber Monday sales are boosting market optimism. Also, the manufacturing sector is showing signs of improvement.

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Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• Manufacturing ISM index beats expectations, showing sector improvement despite remaining in contraction
  

• Consumer confidence in stocks reaches 37-year high, raising concerns about market froth
  

• Black Friday online sales surge 14.69% YoY, with Cyber Monday projected to hit $13.2B
  

• New export controls on China’s semiconductor industry reshape tech sector outlook
  

• This gold stock is running a stock promotion

Market Overview

All major indices posting solid gains today.

Key Market Drivers

1. Manufacturing sector shows resilience: ISM index rises to 48.4, beating the 47.5 forecast
   

2. Consumer spending strength: Black Friday sales up 3.4% YoY, with online transactions leading
   

3. Holiday momentum: Retailers report record traffic, with $AMZN and $SHOP posting strong metrics
   

4. Tech sector leadership: Communication Services and Technology stocks drive market gains

Stock Spotlight

• $SMCI ▲ 29%: Special committee finds “no evidence of misconduct,” appoints new chief accounting officer
  

• $TSLA ▲ 3%: Roth MKM upgrades to Buy with $380 target, citing Trump-Musk relationship benefits
  

• $INTC ▲ 4%: CEO Pat Gelsinger retires; David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus named interim co-CEOs
  

• $STLA ▼ 9%: CEO Carlos Tavares resigns over strategic disputes, interim committee established

Big Name Updates

• $NVDA: Secures priority deliveries for GB200 chips to xAI, expands into robotics supply chain in Taiwan
  

• $AMZN: Launches physical data transfer terminals in NYC and LA, offering 400Gbps upload speeds
  

• $BAC: Bank of America reiterates buy rating, sees 27% upside potential under new regulatory environment

Other Notable Company News

• $SQ: Bernstein raises PT to $120, names Block their “best idea” for 2025

• $SHOP: Hits record $5B GMV on Black Friday, Deutsche Bank maintains Buy rating

• $NVO: Upgraded at Exane BNP Paribas, citing significant 2025 pipeline catalysts

• $LULU: Jefferies reiterates underperform rating, cites competition concerns

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields remain range-bound as investors await Friday’s jobs report.

Markets are weighing improving manufacturing data against potential policy shifts, with JPMorgan adjusting ECB rate cut expectations to December.

Policy Watch

Biden administration implements new semiconductor export controls targeting China:

• 24 new chipmaking tools added to restricted list
  

• Ban on advanced high-bandwidth memory exports
  

• 140 Chinese companies added to Entity List, including SMIC and Huawei

What to Watch

1. November Jobs Report (Friday): Critical data point for Fed policy direction and market sentiment heading into year-end
   

2. Holiday Sales Data:

• Cyber Monday final figures expected this week

• Early indicators suggest record-breaking online sales

• Retail sector performance may signal consumer health

3. Chinese Tech Response:

• Impact of new export controls on global supply chains

• Potential retaliation measures

• Effects on U.S. semiconductor companies’ revenues

4. December Market Seasonality:

• Historically strongest month in election years

• Current technical setups suggests potential move to 6150-6200 range

• Watch for year-end positioning and window dressing

P.S. 
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Thanks for reading 🙂

- John