December 5th Market Overview

Happy Thursday everyone.

A good friend texted me yesterday at 9:33 pm EST last night.

He said “Bitcoin might break 100k right now”.

Boom, less then a minute later Bitcoin crossed the 100k mark. A historical landmark in the crypto space - but also the alternative investment space in general.

Enough about stinky bitcoin though lets jump into the equity market news!

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• Markets await November jobs report with economists forecasting 214,000 new positions
  

• ISM Services index signals slower growth at 52.1, well below 55.7 estimate
  

• $LLY announces $3B Wisconsin plant expansion amid surging weight-loss drug demand
  

• OPEC+ extends production cuts through March 2025
  

• Crypto stocks up as Bitcoin tops $100,000 for first time
  

Market Overview

All major indices posting solid gains today.

Key Market Drivers

1. ISM Services Index dropped to 52.1 from 56.0, suggesting slower economic expansion
   

2. Weekly jobless claims rose to 224,000, exceeding 215,000 forecast
   

3. Trade deficit narrowed to $73.8B in October, beating estimates
   

4. Eight OPEC+ members extend 2.2M barrel/day production cuts through March 2025

Stock Spotlight

• $LLY ▼ 0.41% - Investing $3B to expand Wisconsin facility for Zepbound and Mounjaro production amid 5.2M+ prescriptions written
  

• $AEO ▼ 15.68% - Missed revenue expectations, lowered full-year comp sales guidance to 3% from 4%
  

• $AAL ▲ 16% - Names Citi exclusive credit card partner starting 2026, ending Barclays relationship
  

• $FIVE ▲ 14% - Beat Q3 expectations with $844M revenue versus $799M estimate
  

• $SNPS ▼ 6% - Despite record earnings, Q1 guidance missed analyst targets

Big Name Updates

• $META plans $10B Louisiana AI data center, explores nuclear power for facilities targeting 1-4 GW generation by early 2030s
  

• $NVDA negotiating Blackwell chip production at $TSM Arizona plant
  

• $GOOGL faces potential split as EU competition chief keeps breakup option open
  

• $TSLA receives PT boost to $400 from BofA, citing Optimus robot productivity gains
  

• $PLTR faces potential competition as OpenAI partners with Anduril on military drone systems

Other Notable Company News

• $AFRM PT raised to $81 by BTIG, highlighting margins exceeding American Express
  

• $HPE upgraded to overweight with $28 PT ahead of Juniper acquisition
  

• $DIS boosts quarterly dividend 33% to $1.00 per share
  

• $PYPL reaffirms mid-single-digit Q4 growth outlook after strong Cyber Five performance
  

• $COST reports November comp sales ▲ 3.1%, net sales ▲ 5.6% to $21.87B

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Not much going on in the bond market today. Likely more moves as official US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report comes in tomorrow.

Policy Watch

• Fed Chair Powell emphasizes economy’s strength allows careful approach to rate decisions

• President-elect Trump nominates Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, Billy Long to lead IRS

• EU competition authority maintains pressure on $GOOGL restructuring
  

What to Watch

1. November Jobs Report: Critical data point for Fed policy direction

• Consensus estimate: 214,000 new jobs

• Previous month showed signs of labor market resilience

• Could influence December Fed meeting decisions

2. Crypto Market Dynamics: Bitcoin breakthrough driving sector momentum

• $HOOD crypto expansion plans

• Institutional investors acquired 3% of total Bitcoin supply in 2024

• Implications for crypto-related stocks

3. Oil Market Response: OPEC+ production cut extension impact

• Supply cuts of 2.2M barrels/day maintained through March 2025

• Gradual phase-out planned through September 2026

• Effects on energy sector performance

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John