January 22nd Market Overview

January 22nd Market Overview

In partnership with

Happy Wednesday.

Markets are pushing higher today as Trump's $500B "Stargate" AI infrastructure project takes stage, partnering with OpenAI, $ORCL, and SoftBank.

$NFLX delivered big earnings yesterday in after-hours with over 300M subscribers and an 18.9M subscriber beat. The tech sector leads gains while a potential 10% China tariff looms for February 1st.

Executive Summary

  • S&P 500 hits new record of 6,100.81, driven by tech sector strength

  • Trump admin unveils $500B AI infrastructure initiative with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank

  • $NFLX crushes earnings expectations, surpasses 300M global subscribers

  • China announces measures to boost market liquidity through insurance fund investments

  • Signs of iPhone market share erosion in China impacts $AAPL

Market Overview

S&P 500

+0.69%

Nasdaq

+1.33%

Dow Jones

+.30%

Key Market Drivers

  1. AI Infrastructure Investment: The Stargate project's $500B commitment includes $100B immediate deployment, with key collaborators $ARM, $MSFT, $NVDA, $ORCL and OpenAI. The initiative aims to boost U.S. re-industrialization and strengthen national security, starting in Texas.

  2. Streaming Sector Evolution: $NFLX demonstrates streaming market strength with record-breaking NFL viewership on Christmas Day and the most-streamed sporting event with the Paul-Tyson fight. The success of Squid Games and 55% of new sign-ups choosing ad-supported tiers validates their business model.

  3. China Market Policy Shift: Government announces comprehensive plan to increase insurance company stock investments, expand swap facilities for securities firms, and guide major state-owned insurers to raise A-share investments, signaling strong market support.

  4. Broad Earnings Momentum: Beyond technology, multiple sectors show strength with $PG beating on $21.88B revenue, $UAL raising Q1 guidance above consensus, and $JNJ exceeding Q4 expectations with $22.52B revenue. This cross-sector performance indicates broader market health.

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Stock Spotlight

$NFLX

  • Global subscribers reach 301.63M, adding 18.91M new members

  • Revenue ▲ 16% to $10.25B

  • Operating margin expands to 22.2%

  • Plans $15B share buyback program

  • Price increases of $1-$2.50 monthly across subscription tiers

$ORCL

  • Shares ▲ 7% on Stargate AI project participation

  • Trading volume exceeds 20M shares, double 30-day average

  • Key participant in national AI infrastructure development

$PG

  • Q2 EPS of $1.88 tops $1.86 estimate

  • Revenue reaches $21.88B vs $21.54B expected

  • Effective cost management drives margin expansion

Big Name Updates

$AAPL

  • Chinese market share drops to third position

  • Holiday quarter iPhone sales ▼ 18%

  • Huawei claims market leadership

$META

  • Expands wearables strategy for 2025

  • Develops Oakley-branded smart glasses

  • Plans AI-enhanced earbuds with cameras

  • Instagram Reels gains from potential TikTok restrictions

$GOOGL

  • Commits additional $1B to Anthropic

  • Total investment exceeds $3B

  • Strengthens position against OpenAI

Other Notable Company News

  • $UAL ▲ 5% on strong Q1 guidance

  • $CELH ▼ 4.6% after TD Cowen downgrade

  • $DIS receives Citi buy rating, $125 target

  • $SNOW price target raised to $210 at Wedbush

Sector Watch

Sector

Symbol

% Change

Technology

$XLK

▲ 2.45%

Communication Services

$XLC

▲ 1.13%

Industrials

$XLI

▲ 0.03%

Consumer Staples

$XLP

▼ 0.07%

Healthcare

$XLV

▼ 0.13%

Consumer Discretionary

$XLY

▼ 0.21%

Financials

$XLF

▼ 0.30%

Materials

$XLB

▼ 0.49%

Energy

$XLE

▼ 1.23%

Real Estate

$XLRE

▼ 1.41%

Utilities

$XLU

▼ 1.83%

Bond Market

Treasury yields declined across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year dropping 4 basis points to 4.57%.

Trump's softer stance on immediate tariff implementation took market by surprise. Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Political Economist Alec Phillips noted the admin’s trade announcements were "more benign than expected," leading to reduced concerns about immediate inflationary pressures from universal tariffs.

Policy Watch

  • Trump administration considers 10% tariff on Chinese imports, citing fentanyl distribution through Mexico and Canada. Implementation targeted for February 1st, with potential 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada in coming weeks

  • Newly formed cryptocurrency task force aims to develop comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, signaling increased focus on crypto market oversight

  • Administration plans to disband National Space Council under pressure from $SPACEX, marking shift in space policy governance

  • China's market support initiatives include:

    • Increasing medium and long-term fund allocation to equity markets

    • Directing major state-owned insurers to boost A-share investments

    • Expanding swap facilities for securities firms to enhance market liquidity

  • Iran senior official states nuclear weapon development capability, adding geopolitical complexity to market considerations

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What to Watch

  1. AI Infrastructure Development Timeline:

  • Initial $100B deployment strategy

  • Regional focus starting in Texas

  • Job creation metrics

  1. Streaming Wars Evolution:

  • $NFLX price increase impact on subscriber retention

  • Ad-supported tier performance

  • Live sports content expansion

  1. China Market Policy Effects:

  • Insurance fund allocation changes

  • Impact on foreign investment flows

  • Technology sector competitive dynamics

  1. Trade Policy Implementation:

  • Tariff timeline developments

  • Supply chain adjustments

  • Corporate response strategies



Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.