- Pivot & Flow
- Posts
- July 10th Market Overview
July 10th Market Overview
July 10th Market Overview (no fluff)
Happy Wednesday everyone. Today I am officially covid free!
Anyways lets dig in…
Executive Summary
Soft CPI data anticipated which could lead to higher markets.
Several tech companies including NVDA and DELL show more bullish positioning and strong performance.
Market volatility (VIX) indicator shows trades are short; Wall Street’s “Fear Gauge” suggests a holding pattern.
French markets and global economic uncertainties are impacting traders’ strategies.
SPY currently at - $559
QQQ currently at - $502
Market Overview
Traders’ bearish positioning on the dollar signals an expectation of a soft or in-line CPI which could support markets.
SPX is on its longest winning streak since January.
Nasdaq is flat, trading at 20,500 (premarket), with traders buying dips as they occur.
DJI appears to be on the verge of a breakout from its current triangle formation.
French and German markets experience pressure due to Moody’s downgrade threat to France.
Key Market Drivers
Japan’s PPI data came in softer than expected, adding to global inflation concerns.
Mortgage applications fell by 0.25% this week.
Fed speeches and talks from Powell, Bowman, and Goolsbee hint at dovish policy movements and acknowledgment of weaker labor markets.
China’s mixed inflation data shows domestic demand is not picking up as anticipated.
Stock Spotlight
NVDA - Vol skew points higher, indicating bullish positioning into August; bears forced to close their positions.
DELL - Retested pendant breakout and held above, indicating bullish sentiment on technicals with a target of 160.
AMZN - Skew diverges lower as price consolidates under 200, despite Bezos selling shares. Current volume positioning remains bullish.
HOOD - Still inside the wedge, but good consolidation and fundamentals suggest a move higher soon with a target of 25.
Other Magnificent 7 Updates
META - TD Cowen raises PT to 600 from 530 due to positive engagement trends and solid ad checks.
MSFT - Gives up observer seat on OpenAI’s board, noting improved governance.
TSLA - Goldman raises price target to 248, noting long-term growth prospects but short-term earnings pressure.
AAPL - Needham raises PT to 260 from 220, expecting significant share repurchase programs.
GOOGL - Noted robust growth in search spend, indicating a healthy digital ad environment.
Other Notable Company News
BTC - Above 59k, lifting crypto stocks in premarket.
Beijing announced support for robo taxis; BIDU’s Apollo GO to deploy 1,000 robot axis in Wuhan this year.
ORCL - Ends talks with xAI for 10B AI server deal, but still sees strong demand.
CMG - Weak price action post-stock split; announced CFO retirement after 25 years, to be succeeded by Adam Rymer.
BA - Delivered 44 commercial aircraft in June, marking its highest monthly total.
WMT - Piper Sandler upgrades to overweight, citing early stages of significant profit growth through high-margin streams.
Sector Watch
Global PC shipments increased by 3% in Q2 2024, driven by AI-capable devices, with AAPL showing 20% YOY growth.
IDC raised forecasts for data center compute and storage spending through 2028, benefiting NVDA, TSM, AMD, SMCI.
Samsung Electronics union strikes are impacting their 8-inch semiconductor production.
Chinese vehicle sales saw a 2.7% decrease YOY in June.
Bond Market
Short-term positioning on TLT suggests traders are hedging but remain bullish, aligning with expectations of a soft CPI.
Policy Watch
Powell highlighted that the labor market is no longer a source of broad inflationary pressures and acknowledged concerns about weakening labor data. This dovish stance hints at future rate cuts.
Yellen echoed Powell’s sentiments, predicting lower inflation over time and noting that the jobs market’s influence on inflation has decreased.
France faces pressure after Moody’s downgrading threat due to its debt servicing costs.
-JB
P.S. I wrote a whole book on how I approach swing trading, I didn’t hold back on what Ive learned from the best traders I got to shadow while working on Wall Street.
Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.