July 15th Market Overview

July 15th Market Overview (no fluff)

Happy Monday, everyone. This weekend was filled with news that could affect our markets/trades/investments!

Lets dig in…

Trump Assassination Attempt: Markets react to an assassination attempt on Trump, which he survived. Bets on his presidency have increased.
Economic Data: US labor market weakens; inflation decreases; expectations of rate cuts rise.
China’s Economic Performance: Disappointing GDP and retail sales data weigh on global market sentiment.
Key Corporate Moves: Google to acquire Wiz, Apple gets multiple upgrades, Nvidia increases TSM chip orders.

SPX: Trading currently at 5,641.62 after hitting an all-time high of 5655 on Friday.
Nasdaq: Higher currently at 18,508.02 following the Trump news.
DJI: Continuing upward trend, trading at 40,220.
GER40: Slightly lower, at 18,668.
HKG50: Down amid weak Chinese data, trading below 18k.
VIX: Slight increase post-Trump news, but bearish positioning persists.

Trump Presidency Bets: Following the assassination attempt, Trump’s chances of presidency are perceived higher, giving a bullish tone to markets.
Rate Cut Expectations: Driven by weakening labor market and declining inflation, rate cuts are anticipated in September.
China’s Economic Data: Weak Chinese GDP and retail sales data negatively impact associated stocks and global sentiment.

Google (GOOGL): In advanced talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for $23B.
Apple (AAPL): Multiple upgrades and target price increases; expected multi-year product cycle driven by 2nm tech from TSM.
Nvidia (NVDA): Increases chip orders from TSM by 25% for new GPU architecture.
Tesla (TSLA): Higher in premarket; Musk’s endorsement of Trump seen as bullish.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance in the Nasdaq 100 next week.

Apple (AAPL): Loop Capital upgrades to Buy, raising PT to 300 from 170. Morgan Stanley also increases PT to 273.
Google (GOOGL): Advanced talks for acquiring Wiz.
Nvidia (NVDA): Boosts chip orders for new AI GPUs.
Tesla (TSLA): Market perceives Trump’s increased odds of presidency as favorable.

TSMC (TSM): Slated to supply Apple’s first 2nm chips in 2025, receiving multiple upgrades due to optimistic revenue forecasts.
EA (Electronic Arts): Downgraded by Citi to Neutral; cautious on potential game release risks.
Baidu (BIDU): Jefferies lowers PT; focus on user experience and rebuilding AI ecosystem.
Uber (UBER): Needham reaffirms Buy rating and $90 PT.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF): Acquires STELCO Holdings for $2.5B.

Solar Stocks: Lower as Trump’s assassination attempt solidifies likelihood of his presidency, unfavorable to the sector.
Chinese Stocks: Generally down amidst weak economic data; GDP and retail sales disappoint.
Technology: GOOGL, AAPL, and NVDA exhibit strength; favorable sentiment driven by acquisitions and product cycles.

Bond yields tick higher ahead of Powell’s comments and following the Trump news.

Federal Reserve: Rate cuts anticipated in September due to weakening labor market and inflation trends.
Trump’s Security: Increased probability of victory boosting market confidence, though political risks remain.

- JB

Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.