November 11th Market Overview

Happy Monday everyone.

Bank stocks are up on expectations of lighter regulation, and our alternative currency friend, Bitcoin, has surpassed $87,000.

Stocks like $MSTR, $COIN, $RIOT are benefiting from the crypto run.

Are we going to see BTC cross the big $100k mark?

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• Major indices hit new highs as Dow crosses 44,000, driven by financial sector strength and selective tech gains
  

• Bitcoin’s push past $87,000 catalyzes broad crypto market rally, with related stocks seeing substantial gains (shout out Mark for framing a great trade around $MSTR and BTC)
  

• China’s economic data beats expectations, with vehicle sales up 7% and M2 money supply growth at 7.5%
  

• Key tech players receiving notable upgrades, with $NVDA and $TSLA leading positive sentiment in AI and autonomous driving

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. Post-Election Rally Continues: Financial stocks lead gains with $JPM (▲ 1.1%) and $GS (▲ 2.3%) showing strength on regulatory optimism
   

2. Crypto Market Bull Run: Bitcoin topping $87,000 drives related stocks higher, with $COIN (▲ 23%) and $MARA (▲ 31%)
   

3. China Economic Data: Vehicle sales exceeded expectations at 7% growth, signaling robust consumer activity
   

4. Tech Sector Mixed: Despite selective pressure, key names receive notable analyst upgrades

Stock Spotlight

• $TSLA: Up (▲ 7%) after Wedbush’s significant PT increase to $400, citing Trump presidency as potential catalyst for $1T autonomous driving opportunity
  

• $GLD: This gold company is currently running a promotion.
  

• $BMY: Posted largest gain since March 2020 (▲ 12.8%) after competitor $ABBV’s drug trial failure
  

• $CI: Advanced (▲ 8%) after confirming no $HUM merger pursuit and reaffirming strong 2024-2025 outlook
  

• $NVDA: Received dual upgrades with Piper Sandler raising PT to $175, citing $70B AI accelerator market expansion potential

Big Name Updates

• $MSFT: RBC reiterates outperform rating with $500 PT, highlighting positive executive feedback on H2 Azure acceleration
  

• $AMZN: Developing smart glasses for delivery drivers to improve last-mile logistics
  

• $AAPL: Declined (▼ 2%) against broader market gains
  

• $NVDA: Scheduling two-day AI summit in Tokyo, featuring 90-minute discussion between NVDA and Softbank CEOs

Other Notable Company News

• $WBD: Wolfe upgrades to peer perform, citing potential benefits under new administration
  

• $ENPH: Cutting 17% of workforce, projecting $17-20M in restructuring costs
  

• $PINS: Wedbush upgrades to outperform with $38 PT, citing strong user engagement
  

• $TSM: New Taiwan law restricts 2nm chip manufacturing overseas

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The Bloomberg Long-Term Treasury Index posted its second-worst performance ever, surpassed only by the 2016 post-election decline.

The move highlights significant repositioning in fixed income markets as investors adjust to potential policy shifts. More on this later this week.

Policy Watch

• Fed Chair Powell prepared to legally challenge any removal attempts, emphasizing central bank independence
  

• BOJ minutes reveal cautious stance on rate hikes, with no consensus for December move
  

• EU signals limited prospects for quick China deal on EV tariffs

What to Watch

1. Fed Independence and Policy Direction:

• Potential market reaction to Powell’s stance on independence

• Impact on financial sector regulations

2. Crypto Market Momentum:

• Bitcoin price stability above $80,000

• Performance of crypto-related equities

3. China-Taiwan Chip Restrictions:

• Impact on global semiconductor supply chain

• Effects on AI chip development and availability

4. Tech Sector Earnings:

• Focus on AI server demand and margins

• Cloud service growth trajectories

 
Thanks for reading 🙂

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