November 15th Market Overview

Happy Friday everyone. The weekend is here!

Markets are down today as the post-election rally loses some steam with the Fed's cautious commentary and mixed tech earnings not helping.

$AMAT's cautious outlook is putting some weight on semiconductors names, while healthcare stocks face pressure from new cabinet policy concerns.

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• Major indices tracking for worst weekly performance since September
  

• Retail sales showcase consumer resilience, rising 0.4% in October versus 0.3% expected
  

• Fed officials, including Powell and Collins, signal patience on rate cuts, dropping December cut probability to 58.7% from 82%
  

• Healthcare sector under pressure following Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS Secretary

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. Fed Commentary: Powell emphasizes “no hurry” stance on rate cuts, with Boston Fed’s Collins noting December reduction “not a done deal”
   

2. Economic Data: Strong retail sales and Empire Manufacturing numbers suggest continued economic resilience
   

3. Tech Weakness: Semiconductor sector facing pressure after $AMAT’s cautious outlook
   

4. Healthcare Concerns: Biotech stocks tumbling on potential policy shifts under new administration

Stock Spotlight

• $BE: Surged ▲ 51% on transformative AEP deal valued at $10B, with Piper Sandler upgrade supporting momentum
  

• $AMAT: Dropped ▼ 8% after revenue guidance of $7.15B fell short of $7.224B consensus
  

• $TSLA: Advanced ▲ 2% following RBC upgrade to outperform, PT raised to 33, citing increased confidence in autonomy goals
  

• $SNOW: Gained on Piper Sandler’s overweight rating, noting favorable risk-reward after 35% YTD decline
  

• $HIMS: Recovering from BoA’s double downgrade, with potential for rating revision post-earnings

Big Name Updates

• $NVDA: Declined ▼ 3% despite Jefferies raising PT to 185, citing expected Blackwell ramp benefits
  

• $AMZN: Bezos completes planned 25M share sale; new PT 252 from analysts citing Amazon Haul potential
  

• $DIS: Deutsche Bank lifts PT to 131 from 115, highlighting strong FY25 guidance and experiences segment performance
  

• $BABA: Planning $5B bond offering following earnings release

Other Notable Company News

• $UBER: Citi maintains buy rating with PT 98 after CEO meeting, citing strong mobility trends
  

• $ZETA: Advancing on JPM upgrade to PT 26
  

• $SPACEX: Private valuation reaches 250B in new funding round
  

• $AAPL: Facing potential impact from proposed Chinese import tariffs, though previous exemptions provide precedent

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields continue their upward trajectory, with the 10-year reaching 4.47% and 2-year hitting 4.37%.

Policy Watch

Market participants are recalibrating rate cut expectations following Fed officials’ cautious stance.

The probability of a December cut has dropped significantly, while the path for 2025 remains uncertain even w/ strong economic data and persistent inflation concerns.

What to Watch

1. Fed Speakers Next Week: Watch for additional commentary that could further adjust rate cut expectations

• Boston Fed’s Collins and other officials scheduled to speak

• Market sensitivity to policy guidance remains elevated

2. Retail Earnings Continues: Major retailers report next week

• Will provide crucial insight into consumer spending trends

• Holiday season forecasts particularly important

3. Semiconductor Sector: Monitor for additional guidance following $AMAT’s cautious outlook

• Equipment makers particularly vulnerable

• AI-related demand remains key focus

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John