November 18th Market Overview

Happy Monday everyone.

Markets showed a classic tug-of-war session today, with tech leading gains while industrials took a step back.

Chris Wright's nomination as energy secretary sparked a nuclear sector rally, while Nvidia's chip concerns and Tesla's regulatory boost drove tech headlines.

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• Trump’s energy secretary pick Chris Wright sparks rally in nuclear and fossil fuel stocks, signaling potential sector shift
  

• Nvidia faces critical test with Blackwell chip concerns ahead of Wednesday’s earnings
  

• Tesla leads tech momentum on potential autonomous vehicle regulation overhaul
  

• Spirit Airlines bankruptcy filing highlights ongoing industry challenges

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. Post-election positioning continues as Trump administration plans emerge
   

2. Federal Reserve rate cut probability for December drops to 62.1%, down from 76.8% a month ago
   

3. Cleveland Fed research suggests housing inflation won’t normalize until 2026
   

4. Strong earnings season persists with 74% of companies beating expectations and 62% surpassing revenue estimates

Stock Spotlight

• $TSLA: ▲ 4.85% on Trump team’s push to ease self-driving vehicle regulations, with potential deployment cap increase from 2,500 to 100,000 vehicles annually
  

• $NVDA: ▼ 0.83% following The Information report about Blackwell AI chips overheating in server racks, despite $6B XAI chip purchase plans
  

• $CVS: ▲ 5% after adding four new board members and receiving Wells Fargo upgrade to overweight with $66 price target
  

• $OKLO: ▲ 20% following Chris Wright’s nomination as Energy Secretary, benefiting from his board position
  

• $LBRT: ▲ 5% as CEO Chris Wright selected for Energy Secretary position

Big Name Updates

• $AAPL and $NFLX: Both ▲ 2%, with Netflix reaching all-time highs
  

• $AMD: ▲ 4% amid broader tech sector strength
  

• $GS and $CRM: Leading Dow decliners, collectively responsible for over 62 points of index decline

Other Notable Company News

• $SPIRIT: Trading halted after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing
  

• $HOOD: Upgraded by Needham to buy with $40 target
  

• $FOUR: Set to join S&P midcap 400, replacing RCM
  

• $MARA: Weakens despite Bitcoin’s $90,000 level on $700M convertible note offering

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Ten-year Treasury yield rises to 4.5%, reflecting shifting market expectations about Federal Reserve policy.

This marks a significant move as the market re-assess the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.

Policy Watch

• Trump transition team prioritizing national framework for autonomous vehicles
  

• Cleveland Fed projects extended timeline for housing inflation normalization
  

• Energy policy shifts expected with Chris Wright nomination as Energy Secretary

What to Watch Tomorrow

1. Nvidia’s Server Response: Monitor $NVDA's technical response to Blackwell chip concerns
   

   • Watch for any official statements addressing overheating issues

   • Observe large customer reactions, particularly $META and $GOOGL
     

2. Spirit Airlines Aftermath: Track broader airline sector impact
   

   • Monitor competitor pricing adjustments

   • Watch for route capacity changes among major carriers
     

3. Federal Reserve Commentary: Key speeches could shift rate cut expectations
   

   • Watch for any shifts in December rate cut probability

   • Monitor bond market reaction to Fed statements

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John