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Happy Friday everyone.
Markets kicked off November with a strong rally despite a surprisingly weak jobs report. Tech giants $AMZN and $INTC are leading the greens with good earnings.
Heightened Middle East tensions continue to influence oil prices.
Let's dig in...
Executive Summary
Markets shrug off weakest jobs report since December 2020, with only 12,000 jobs added
Tech sector rebounds sharply as $AMZN announces major AI investments and strong cloud growth
Fed rate cut probability rises to 99% for November meeting
Manufacturing sector contracts for seventh consecutive month
Market Overview
All major indices posting solid gains today.
S&P 500 |  | 0.54% |
Nasdaq | | 0.84% |
Dow Jones | | 0.75% |
Key Market Drivers
Jobs Report Surprise: October payrolls shocked with only 12,000 jobs added, significantly below the 100,000 forecast
Tech Earnings: Strong results from $AMZN and $INTC sparked sector-wide optimism
Manufacturing Data: ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.5, marking continued sector contraction
Middle East Tensions: Reports of potential Iranian strikes on Israel pushed oil prices higher
Stock Spotlight
$AMZN: ▲ 6% after announcing a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” in AI with $75B CapEx commitment for FY24
$INTC: ▲ 9% following strong earnings beat and positive guidance, despite AI revenue target concerns
$AAPL: ▼ 1.5% on mixed earnings - beat EPS ($1.64 vs $1.49) but disappointed on China revenue
$BA: ▲ 3.4% after reaching tentative deal with 33,000 striking machinists, offering 38% pay raise over four years
$CVX: ▲ 2% on strong Q3 results and record $7.7B shareholder returns
Big Name Updates
$META stabilizing after recent volatility, with market focus shifting to AI investments
$NVDA ▲ 2.9% benefiting from $AMZN’s massive AI infrastructure spending plans
$MSFT rebounds ▲ 2% following Thursday’s sharp decline on cloud growth concerns
Other Notable Company News
$GSAT expands $AAPL partnership with $1.5B satellite services deal
$SMCI faces Nasdaq delisting risk without audited compliance plan by November 16
$EVR, $MTH, and $SU added to Goldman Sachs conviction list
Sector Watch
Sector | Symbol | % Change |
|---|---|---|
Communication Services | $XLC | ▲ 2.00% |
Technology | $XLK | ▲ 1.33% |
Consumer Discretionary | $XLY | ▲ 1.30% |
Energy | $XLE | ▲ 1.29% |
Industrials | $XLI | ▲ 1.05% |
Financials | $XLF | ▲ 0.50% |
Healthcare | $XLV | ▼ 0.12% |
Consumer Staples | $XLP | ▼ 0.70% |
Materials | $XLB | ▼ 0.56% |
Real Estate | $XLRE | ▼ 0.69% |
Utilities | $XLU | ▼ 1.87% |
Bond Market
Treasury yields responded sharply to the jobs report, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.365%.
The weak employment data strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts, leading to increased bond market activity.
Policy Watch
Fed meeting scheduled for November 6-7 takes on heightened importance after weak jobs data
Market pricing suggests 99% probability of November rate cut
Manufacturing sector’s continued weakness adds pressure for policy response
Builder stocks rally on expectations of lower mortgage rates ahead
What to Watch
Fed Meeting Next Week:
Watch for signals about December policy direction
Key focus on Powell’s commentary about labor market weakness
Tech Sector AI Investments:
Monitor impact of $AMZN’s $75B CapEx commitment
Track semiconductor stocks as AI demand accelerates
Middle East Developments:
Oil price sensitivity to geopolitical news
Potential impact on energy sector performance
Earnings Season Continuation:
Key focus on retail sector reports
Impact of AI investments on profit margins
P.S.
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Thanks for reading 🙂
- John
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