November 29th Market Overview

November 29th Market Overview (no fluff)

Author

J.L. Bernstein
November 29, 2024

In partnership with

Happy Friday everyone. I hope everyone had a great thanksgiving!

Markets are serving up plenty to be thankful for as we return from the holiday, the S&P 500 crossing the historic 6,000 mark for the first time!

Broad-based strength is pushing all sectors into the green, while semiconductor stocks add extra flavor to today's rally on hints of lighter China export restrictions.


Let’s dig in….

Executive Summary

  • S&P 500 breaks 6,000 milestone amid broad market strength

  • November comes to an end as 2024’s strongest month, with Dow gaining nearly 8%

  • Small-cap Russell 2000 outperforms with 11%+ monthly gain on Nov.

  • VIX falls to 13.76, lowest since July, reflecting market stability

Market Overview

S&P 500

+0.65%

Nasdaq

+0.87%

Dow Jones

+0.52%

Key Market Drivers

  1. Post-Election Rally: Trump victory sparks optimism for corporate tax cuts and deregulation

  2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Markets pricing 66% probability of December rate reduction

  3. Strong Economic Data: Resilient GDP and controlled inflation supporting market confidence

  4. Chip Sector Catalyst: Potential easing of China semiconductor equipment restrictions

Stock Spotlight

  • $NVDA ▲ 2.28%: Rebounds from post-earnings dip on potential China export policy shifts

  • $TSLA ▲ 2.28%: Heading for best month since January 2023, up 33% in November

  • $WMT ▲ 0.75%: Reaches all-time high as Black Friday shopping commences

  • $MSTR ▲ 4.0%: Benefits from bitcoin’s approach toward $100,000 milestone

  • $AAP ▼ 7.0%: Slides after Moody’s downgrades senior unsecured debt

Big Name Updates

  • $MSFT: Wedbush maintains outperform rating despite FTC probe, citing likely leadership changes under Trump administration

  • $BRK.A: Tracks toward record close above $724,000, outperforming S&P 500 with 33% YTD gain

  • $HOOD ▲ 3.0%: Rallies following SEC approval of 24-hour stock exchange

Sector Watch

Sector

Symbol

% Change

Technology

$XLK

▲ 1.07%

Consumer Discretionary

$XLY

▲ 1.02%

Industrials

$XLI

▲ 0.66%

Energy

$XLE

▲ 0.57%

Healthcare

$XLV

▲ 0.54%

Materials

$XLB

▲ 0.54%

Financials

$XLF

▲ 0.48%

Consumer Staples

$XLP

▲ 0.47%

Real Estate

$XLRE

▲ 0.45%

Communication Services

$XLC

▲ 0.33%

Utilities

$XLU

▲ 0.32%

Bond Market

Treasury yields continue their descent, with the 10-year note dropping 6.4 basis points to 4.20% and the 2-year yield falling 5 basis points to 4.19%.

This marks significant movement from Monday’s levels when the 10-year yielded above 4.4%.

Policy Watch

The Biden administration contemplates revising semiconductor equipment sales restrictions to China, potentially implementing less measures than previously reported.

Meanwhile, markets monitor President-elect Trump’s tariff proposals, particularly regarding potential impacts on trade with Mexico, Canada, and China.

What to Watch

  1. OPEC+ Meeting Next Thursday:

  • Expected delay of planned output hike by at least three months

  • Potential impact on energy sector performance

  • Market implications for inflation expectations

  1. Retail Performance Data:

  • Black Friday sales figures beginning to emerge

  • $WMT and other retailers’ performance as holiday shopping season kicks off

  • Consumer spending trends as economic indicator

  1. Fed Commentary:

  • Market reaction to upcoming economic data releases

  • Evolution of rate cut expectations for December

  • Impact on Treasury yields and sector rotation

  1. Tech Sector Developments:

  • Implementation timeline for new China chip restrictions

  • Further details on 24-hour stock exchange operations

  • AI-related stock movements under new regulatory framework


Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.