The 2025 Emerging Markets Cheat Sheet

UNITED STATES -

This one will be the shortest as we all kinda have a grip here on whats happening.

• Corporate tax cuts from 2017 expected to become permanent, which should directly boost corporate earnings

• New administration plans to implement tariffs, particularly on steel and autos, which would act as a regressive tax impacting poorer consumers more heavily

• Creation of DOGE committee aims to digitalize federal government efforts but effectiveness remains to be seen

• Major concern around inflation as tariffs would likely increase consumer prices and reduce purchasing power

• Labor market could face pressures from proposed immigration policies, potentially driving up wages in sectors like construction and agriculture

CHINA -

• Implementing massive 10 trillion Yuan fiscal package focused on local government debt restructuring

• Property sector remains major concern with declining investments and sales

• Making significant progress in industrial upgrading - semiconductor production doubled in 4 years

• Domestic robotics market share increased from 30% to 47%

• Actively diversifying exports away from developed markets toward emerging markets

• Could benefit if Chinese companies establish US production facilities to avoid tariffs

Strategic Pivots

This isn't 2016's China anymore. They took that U.S. foreign policy pivot seriously and went all-in on self-sustainability and industrial upgrading. Look at their auto exports, especially EVs. Their smartphone makers are targeting European markets, and their domestic chip production has more than doubled in four years.

TAIWAN & SOUTH KOREA -

Taiwan leads global semiconductor production and AI hardware manufacturing:

• TSMC dominates high-end chip production with 90% market share in advanced nodes
• Stock market up 24% YTD, reflecting strategic importance in AI supply chain
• Critical supplier for data center and AI infrastructure components

South Korea pivoting from consumer electronics to industrial tech:

• Leading memory chip innovation through Samsung and SK Hynix
• Expanding industrial robotics capabilities
• Building out AI hardware infrastructure despite weaker consumer demand

Energy challenges reshaping both markets:

• Massive power demands from new AI/data center buildouts
• Accelerating grid modernization and renewable integration
• Critical power equipment manufacturing for global markets

These markets are evolving beyond pure manufacturing:

• Essential to global AI infrastructure supply chain
• Developing next-gen power solutions for tech sector
• Transitioning into innovation hubs, especially in energy and AI hardware

SAUDI ARABIA, UAE & QATAR -

Saudi Arabia leading regional transformation:

• Vision 2030 driving structural reforms beyond oil dependence
• Financial frameworks modernizing to attract international capital
• Major tourism and entertainment infrastructure development
• $500B NEOM project showcasing scale of transformation efforts

UAE expanding as global business hub:

• Dubai cementing position as regional financial center
• Tech startup ecosystem growing through regulatory incentives
• Tourism infrastructure expanding beyond luxury segment
• Advanced digital infrastructure attracting global companies

Qatar building specialized strengths:

• LNG export capacity expanding significantly
• Financial sector sophistication increasing post-World Cup
• Education and research hubs attracting international institutions
• Infrastructure modernization continuing beyond sports facilities

Regional market integration deepening:

• Cross-border investment vehicles emerging
• Strategic economic partnerships forming between Gulf states
• Coordinated infrastructure development increasing
• Regional tech ecosystem developing shared standards

Key challenges across markets:
• Balancing oil revenue dependence with diversification efforts
• Regional tensions impacting economic development plans
• Social stability considerations affecting reform pace
• Local talent development while attracting international expertise

INDIA -

Market transformation reaching inflection point:

• Now 4th largest global equity market, comprising 20% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index
• Household debt only 19% of GDP vs China’s 65%, indicating massive consumer spending potential
• Government capex tripled to 20.6T rupees in past decade
• Recent inclusion in global bond indices reshaping international investment flows

Manufacturing sector gaining global share:

• Major beneficiary of China +1 supply chain diversification
• Aerospace and defense developing domestic design capabilities
• Digital payment systems and fintech adoption accelerating
• Infrastructure spending creating new industrial corridors

Key sector shifts:

• Real estate expanding into integrated township development
• Digital banking reaching previously unserved populations
• Healthcare networks extending beyond urban centers
• Domestic tourism driving infrastructure investment

Demographics driving structural change:

• Consumer spending shifting from necessities to discretionary
• Young population with increasing purchasing power
• Rapid urbanization creating new market opportunities
• Growing middle class embracing digital services